Scientists have warned for decades that climate change will bring more extreme weather. Now, some are asking what happens when an event arrives that is bigger than anything we have prepared for.
Key Takeaways
- Scientists are increasingly discussing the possibility of an “extreme of extremes,” a climate disaster capable of overwhelming communities and critical infrastructure.
- Earth was about 44 degrees Celsius warmer in 2025 than during the early industrial era, increasing the likelihood and severity of extreme weather.
- Recent wildfires, floods, heat waves and storms offer glimpses of how quickly disasters can overwhelm communities.
- Scientists cannot predict when or where an extraordinary climate disaster will occur, but the risk grows as global temperatures rise.
- Preparing for extreme events will require stronger infrastructure and greater climate resilience alongside efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
What Would Climate Change’s “Big One” Look Like?
California has spent decades preparing for the possibility of the “Big One,” a massive earthquake capable of causing widespread destruction. Now, some climate scientists are borrowing that language to describe another threat.
The Associated Press recently examined growing concern about what researchers have called an “extreme of extremes” or the “Other Big One.” Scientists cannot predict exactly when or where such a disaster might occur, but the conditions that could produce an extraordinary climate event are becoming more favorable as the planet warms.
A climate “Big One” could take many forms, including an unprecedented heat wave, flood, wildfire or storm. Its greatest danger could emerge when the event collides with infrastructure and systems already under severe pressure.
Kim Stanley Robinson imagined such a scenario in his 2020 novel The Ministry for the Future. An extreme heat wave strikes India as the electrical grid fails, leaving millions without access to cooling. The scenario is fictional, but the possibility of increasingly severe weather overwhelming infrastructure is one scientists are taking seriously.
An Age of Extremes
Earth’s average temperature in 2025 was about 1.44 degrees Celsius above levels in the early 1800s, according to the AP. As temperatures rise, extreme heat, storms, floods and droughts can become more frequent or intense.
Recent disasters have demonstrated how enormous those events can become. Australia’s Black Summer wildfires in 2019 and 2020 burned approximately 19 million hectares. Flooding in Pakistan in 2022 left roughly a third of the country under water, while Hurricanes Helene and Milton caused widespread destruction across parts of the southern United States in 2024.
The concern is that even these events may not represent the upper limit of what a warmer planet can produce.
The AP reports that no country is truly prepared for a major climate disaster, particularly as the risks themselves continue to change. Infrastructure built for historical weather patterns may increasingly encounter heat, rainfall, wildfire or flooding outside the conditions for which it was designed.
When One Disaster Creates Another
The consequences of an extreme event can spread far beyond the weather itself. An extraordinary heat wave can push electricity demand higher just when the grid is under its greatest strain. A power failure can remove access to air conditioning while affecting hospitals, communications and other essential services. Flooding can disrupt transportation, electricity, drinking water and emergency response at the same time.
The result can be a cascading crisis in which the initial climate event places pressure on multiple systems simultaneously.
That possibility makes resilience increasingly important. Preparing for a more extreme climate involves considering whether power grids, water systems, hospitals, transportation networks and emergency services can continue functioning when conditions move beyond what communities have historically experienced.
The Danger of Getting Used to Disaster
There is another challenge that has little to do with infrastructure. As extreme weather becomes more familiar, people may begin to view extraordinary events as ordinary.
Australian climate scientist Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick compared the problem to a frog in gradually warming water, questioning whether people will continue to recognize the danger if they become accustomed to constantly bracing for extreme weather.
Communicating the risk is difficult because scientists cannot say that a catastrophic event will strike a particular place in a particular year. Climate scientist Daniel Swain described this as a “Boy Who Cried Wolf” problem, where warnings about extraordinary events can sound exaggerated even when the underlying risk is growing.
The uncertainty surrounding when a disaster will occur does not eliminate the danger. Sonia Seneviratne, a climatologist who vice chairs an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change working group, told AP that the risk of massive extreme events rises with every additional tenth of a degree of warming.
How Much Worse Could It Get?
There is no scientific way to identify the date or location of climate change’s “Big One.” A catastrophic event affecting a particular region could happen decades from now or much sooner.
What scientists can observe is how the underlying risk changes as temperatures rise. The AP points to the United Kingdom as one striking example. A 2022 climate risk assessment estimated a very small probability that temperatures would reach 40 degrees Celsius before 2040. Later that same year, parts of the country exceeded 40 degrees.
Scientists are also increasingly concerned about planetary tipping points. Coral reefs have experienced extraordinary heat stress, while persistent drought, wildfire and deforestation are raising concerns about the future of the Amazon rainforest.
These changes do not tell us what the next major climate disaster will be. They do suggest that the boundaries of what we consider extreme are continuing to shift.
One Planet. One Domain.
Preparing for climate change means confronting risks that can be uncomfortable to imagine, including the possibility of an extraordinary climate disaster.
Scientists cannot tell us when climate change’s “Big One” will arrive or what form it will take. They can tell us that a warmer planet increases the chances of increasingly severe extremes, making the choices we make about emissions, infrastructure and resilience increasingly consequential.
Now is the time to fight back in the name of Earth. By joining the .earth domain tribe, individuals, organizations and businesses can add their voices to a global community committed to protecting our planet and building a more sustainable future.
To learn more and get started, visit Voices.Earth, and check out the latest Voices.Earth podcast series for inspiring stories from our community.
